When it comes to the cryptocurrency market, it appears that there are no accurate forecasts. We know very little about a new type of money. Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, was released in 2009, only 11 years ago, and now we have a crypto market worth billions of dollars that appeared almost out of nowhere. So, experts can predict the price of Bitcoin in 2025 ranging from $1,000,000 to 0.0000001, and each prediction has a chance of coming true.
Of course, cryptocurrency trading is not limited to Bitcoin: Ethereum, Monero, Litecoin, and other currencies account for roughly half of the market. However, Bitcoin reigns supreme in the crypto world. Bitcoin is trending due to zero inflation risk, and its CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is expected to be 3% between 2019 and 2024. As a result, any analysis and forecast should consider the Bitcoin perspective.
The cryptocurrency market operates on the same principles as other financial markets. Japanese candles and other indicators, according to technical analysts, can be seen on the graphs. Simply put, many market indicators reflect human behavior rather than the true cost of the stock. An experienced analyst can track and identify the same movement patterns, as well as create graphs for future changes.
Influential factors in the cryptocurrency industry
Regardless of their relative importance, each of them is significant. Furthermore, each of these factors has the potential to derail future forecasts. As a result, it is necessary to follow them in order to gain a better understanding of the market. We identified several major cryptocurrency industry trends.
The crypto market is unaffected by major economic and political news that affects the forex and stock markets. The unemployment rate in the United States, the trade war between the United States and China, and the ECB’s new interest rate can all cause havoc for currencies and securities. The pool of specific crypto-related news, on the other hand, is the major factor of influence and the locomotive force for market volatility.
The crypto market is focused on new government regulations and other government movements. Furthermore, this market is sensitive to updates — the successful launch of new platforms, price updates, moves by major players, and so on.
Opinions of Experts
The pool of crypto experts is diverse. On the one hand, the cryptocurrency market values technical experts, the owners of large crypto startups, major market investors, and others. The crypto market, on the other hand, is rife with social climbers — YouTube bloggers, news writers, self-promoted traders, and other loudmouths.
As a result, distinguishing between a genuine expert opinion and a forgery is a difficult task. As a result, expert opinions have an impact on the market, but the reaction is also short-term. When market participants realize they are dealing with a forgery, they halt the transaction and begin to wait for genuine news.
Rumors Concerning Cryptocurrency
The main distinction between news and rumors is the ability to verify the information. Real-world events, economic trends and indices, and other searchable data are used to generate market news. Simultaneously, the rumors are based on opinions and quotes. Thousands of investors, however, buy and sell cryptocurrencies based on rumors. These transactions cause price changes.
When the cryptocurrency market was at its peak in 2017, even minor news could cause prices to fluctuate. However, the crypto market will be calmer in 2020. For example, the “breaking news” that Elon Musk intends to invest $ USD million in Bitcoin is unlikely to impress investors. However, rumors are a method of manipulating the market, so the crypto market is not immune to them.
Updates on Technology
Cryptocurrencies are based on blockchain systems and were likely the first high-tech payment method. However, technologies do not exist in a vacuum: they evolve and change all the time. Significant technological changes can be detrimental to the cryptocurrency market, but they usually do not occur abruptly, giving the market enough time to adapt.
For example, the crypto world is waiting for the new Bitcoin to halve in 2020. Bitcoin halving is the process of dividing the number of generated rewards per block in order to keep the total supply of Bitcoin under 21 million. The previous halving drew attention to Bitcoin and drove up its price. There is no reason to wait until next year for another scenario.
Gold is widely regarded as a leading active reserve asset in financial markets. When the value of fiat currencies falls, financial investors turn to reserves such as gold, silver, and commodities. Cryptocurrencies are also an alternative investment option in times of economic turmoil. The increased demand for metals raises the price of gold, and investors begin to purchase Bitcoin.
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the gold price reached new highs in 2020. China is the world’s largest gold exporter, and production there ceased after several weeks of quarantine. Due to limited metal production, gold prices rose and Bitcoin demand skyrocketed. However, another economic downturn could disappoint investors and drive them away from the volatile cryptocurrency market.
Trends in Cryptocurrencies 2020-2023
Keeping the main factors of influence in mind, any crypto player should also follow the main crypto trends 2020-2023. Of course, everything can change very quickly: nobody predicted the coronavirus pandemic and global quarantine at the start of 2020, let alone the economic crisis in the world’s leading economies. We created the forecasts based on the current market situation and hope that the main crypto trends continue indefinitely.
COVID and Bitcoin: Halving 2020
As previously stated, the previous halving of 21 million Bitcoin piqued the interest of investors. The reason is straightforward: a scarcity of new Bitcoin supply drives up the price. Furthermore, as the price rises, a Bitmain becomes more profitable, mining speeds up, and the end of Bitmain approaches. When the mining farms, the majority of which are in China, stop operating, Bitcoin faces a serious challenge. However, it regains its position following the upheaval. So, at the very least, Bitcoin will remain at the top in 2020: we do not anticipate a new crypto winter.
Furthermore, Bitcoin benefits from the epidemic. During periods of financial market volatility, investors turn to reserve assets such as metals, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, in the post-pandemic world, dissatisfaction with traditional economics and fiat currencies will drive new entrants into the crypto world. Bitcoin, as the oldest and most reliable currency, will continue to be the leader and define the major cryptocurrency trends.
Just one interesting fact: Tom Lee, a former JP Morgan analyst, believes that the fair price for Bitcoin is $14800, but that it can rise to $150,000 if the number of Bitcoin wallets reaches 7% of the number of Visa cards (for now it is 4,5 bln). In any case, the outlook for Bitcoin in 2020-2023 is moderately optimistic.
Following the Leader in Altcoins
Ethereum is the undisputed leader among altcoins. The Nasdaq stock exchange has added Ethereum and Bitcoin to its list of indices. Its dominant position stems from the fact that Ethereum is not only a cryptocurrency but also a platform for numerous blockchain projects. However, Ethereum encountered scalability issues. The platform was unable to process the remittance as the number of Ethereum-based projects increased. The world is still waiting for Ethereum-based corporate applications. If a company like Uber launches blockchain applications that accept cryptocurrency payments, Ethereum will be around for a long time. Otherwise, it may end up being a dead coin. The forecast is mild.
Ripple’s phenomenon is that no single opinion exists about its nature: some market analysts do not believe it is a crypto coin due to the lack of mining. However, Ripple has formed a partnership with 50 major banks and financial institutions. Banks typically oppose crypto trends, but not with Ripple. The primary challenge for this coin is to push Swift out of the market. If this occurs, the forecast can be changed from moderate to positive.
EOS is a rising star in recent years and Ethereum’s main competitor. This platform can support corporate applications without causing scalability issues. As a result, if Ethereum fails the challenge, EOS can take its place. For the time being, the forecast is favorable.
Monero remains at the top of the list of the most popular cryptocurrencies. It is widely regarded as the most secure cryptocurrency. It may, however, lose its position. 90% of transactions appear to be trackable. Even after the last, the percentage of secure transactions is less than 50%. The forecast ranges from moderate to low.
Considering the Future
Have you heard of a self-fulfilling prophecy? This intriguing socio-psychological phenomenon demonstrates human belief’s ability to influence the future. The prophecy comes true because a large number of people believe it will. Their beliefs influence their actions, and the behaviors that result align with those beliefs.
Netflix released the second season of Altered Carbon, a cyberpunk series, in 2020. The story takes place in the early twenty-first century. Surprisingly, the dark and dingy half-legal shop accepts Bitcoin, Litecoin, Monero, and Z-cash. Why do the series’ creators believe people will use cryptocurrency 400 years after us?
The answer is that national currencies may lose value as globalization and possible space expansion continue. When humanity is dispersed across multiple planets, it is difficult to find a universal equivalent — but cryptocurrencies can fill this void. And, if people believe cryptocurrencies will exist in the twenty-first century, this prophecy has a good chance of coming true.